Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 0.521138 0.604918 0.695115 0.799117 0.915392 1.041048 1.186766
2025-03-30 0.377761 0.482356 0.603473 0.752890 0.930987 1.135167 1.385565
2025-04-06 0.284555 0.399238 0.541757 0.729104 0.965847 1.251876 1.620055
2025-04-13 0.211447 0.327433 0.482420 0.699462 0.989693 1.358143 1.854104
2025-04-20 0.165920 0.283366 0.451779 0.702130 1.054757 1.522749 2.177955
2025-04-27 0.127059 0.240761 0.416216 0.693224 1.103845 1.672578 2.498919
2025-05-04 0.099983 0.210327 0.393340 0.699392 1.175169 1.860322 2.889486
2025-05-11 0.077790 0.182566 0.369664 0.700963 1.240326 2.046378 3.295459
2025-05-18 0.055791 0.148636 0.328849 0.668586 1.249657 2.152421 3.597048
2025-05-25 0.038454 0.117987 0.286937 0.627015 1.238669 2.226533 3.858072
2025-06-01 0.028440 0.099869 0.264832 0.617003 1.278908 2.384136 4.258965
2025-06-08 0.020692 0.083963 0.243331 0.604304 1.312756 2.534400 4.660221
2025-06-15 0.016248 0.075614 0.237543 0.624183 1.412196 2.809099 5.293024
2025-06-22 0.010882 0.060933 0.212361 0.598795 1.423889 2.936341 5.696305
2025-06-29 0.007554 0.050916 0.195838 0.589224 1.465320 3.119905 6.208835
2025-07-06 0.005001 0.041610 0.177895 0.572557 1.490246 3.276259 6.687065
2025-07-13 0.003645 0.036598 0.171057 0.581771 1.570635 3.541731 7.373842
2025-07-20 0.002495 0.031175 0.160733 0.579879 1.626845 3.766392 8.003399
2025-07-27 0.001786 0.027540 0.155246 0.590060 1.711590 4.053247 8.764115
2025-08-03 0.001231 0.024000 0.148554 0.595481 1.786170 4.325979 9.515655
2025-08-10 0.000695 0.018955 0.132869 0.570379 1.784875 4.445856 9.989278
2025-08-17 0.000345 0.014352 0.115920 0.536425 1.756600 4.507220 10.355013
2025-08-24 0.000196 0.011902 0.107910 0.529711 1.796341 4.714396 11.014208